Energy costs and El-Nino could slow growth and lift inflation, warns HSBC’s Pranjul Bhandari

Pranjul Bhandari, Chief India Economist at HSBC, says economic growth has remained resilient so far, supported by strong manufacturing activity and inventory build-up. However, she expects the impact of higher energy prices and a potential El Niño-driven weather shock to become more visible in growth and inflation data from the July-September quarter of 2026 (Q2FY27). Bhandari also believes RBI measures could attract significant capital inflows, improve banking system liquidity and provide support to the formal economy.